Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 19, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-year high 108.96 on Thursday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 4.9% to 12.03; S&P 500 hit record high 2,012.34 before closing up 0.49% at 2,011.36 overnight) as investors are heartened by the steady-as-she-goes message the Federal Reserve is delivering on the economy and interest rates. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.618% versus 2.600% late Wednesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 84.25 versus 84.78 early Thursday) as larger-than-expected 14.4% on-month drop in U.S. housing starts to 956,000 in August (versus forecast minus 5.6%), 5.6% on-month drop in U.S. building permits to 998,000 in August (versus forecast minus 1.1%) and more-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity to 22.5 in September from 28.0 in August (versus forecast 24.0) offset fewer-than-expected 280,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Sept. 13 (versus forecast 305,000). USD/JPY upside also limited by profit-taking on long-USD positions as market participants trim risk exposure before weekend. 

Technical comment: 

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.  

Trading recommendations: 

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.45  and the second target at 110. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 108. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.65. The pivot point is at 108.35. 

Resistance levels: 

109.45

110

110.25

Support levels: 

108

107.65 

107.10

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 19, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in higher range after hitting one-year high 0.9433 on Thursday. USD/CHF is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross after Swiss National Bank on Thursday kept its 3-month target LIBOR rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.25% and maintained its currency limit of 1.2 franc per euro as widely anticipated. USD/CHF is also weighed by the profit-taking on long-USD positions as market participants trim risk exposure before weekend. But CHF sentiment are dented by the drop in Switzerland trade surplus to CHF1.39 billion in August from CHF3.9 billion in July. 

Technical Comments:

Daily chart is tilting negative as bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday, stochastics is falling from overbought zone, MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.   

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9435 and the second target at 0.9460. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9320. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9295. The pivot point is at 0.9350.  

Resistance levels:

0.9435 

0.9460 

0.9480

Support levels:

0.9320

0.9295

0.9270

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 19, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range.It is supported by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 84.25 versus 84.78 early Thursday) as larger-than-expected 14.4% on-month drop in U.S. housing starts to 956,000 in August (versus forecast minus 5.6%), 5.6% on-month drop in U.S. building permits to 998,000 in August (versus forecast minus 1.1%) and more-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity to 22.5 in September from 28.0 in August (versus forecast 24.0) offset fewer-than-expected 280,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Sept. 13 (versus forecast 305,000), Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment and profit-taking on long-USD positions as market participants trim risk exposure before weekend. 

Technical Comment:

Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.  

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8160 and the second target at 0.82. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8075. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8045. The pivot point is at 0.8110. 

Resistance levels:

0.8160

0.82

0.8240

Support levels:

0.8075

0.8045

0.8

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 19, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias.It is supported by buoyant USD/JPY undertone and demand from Japan importers. GBP Loss is tempered by GBP demand on soft EUR/GBP cross, GBP demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But GBP sentiment are dented by the  weaker-than-expected 0.4% on-month and +3.9% on-year increase in U.K. August retail sales (versus forecast +0.6% on-month, +4.2% on-year)But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend. 

Technical Comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.  

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 179.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 180.75 and the second target at 181.30.   

Resistance levels:

180.75

181.30

182.10

Support levels:  

176.75

175.80

175.05

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 19, 2014

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The USD/CAD pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel. This bearish trend started with retesting 1.1260 when bears initiated this extensive bearish impulse.

Two months ago, the bearish swing mentioned above was hindered at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper  bearish one.

In August, bullish breakout off the movement channel took place. This enabled the current bullish Flag pattern to be established. 

In one month, a bullish rally extended from 1.0620 reaching 1.0990 where the upper limit of the Flag pattern is located.

This price level corresponding to the upper limit of the flag is being retested again after the initial bullish rejection initiated on Wednesday. 

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Last week, the USD/CAD pair has established a recent consolidation zone  between 1.0990 – 1.0850.

Four-hour fixation above price zone of 1.0990-1.1025 (50% Fibonacci level) confirmed the bullish flag pattern mentioned above offering a valid BUY entry.

Today, another opportunity  to BUY the pair exists around 1.0980-1.0950 as the pair is currently retesting the previously broken resistance zone (it should act as support). Projection targets are located initially around 1.1235 – 1.1270. SL should be located below 1.0930.  

On the other hand, a bearish head and shoulders pattern is being established on the 4H chart. Any bearish fixation below 1.0900 confirms the reversal. Thus, the buyers should be careful with their long positions around the current levels.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 19, 2014

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Overview

According to our last week expections, the price’s close below the Resistance level of 18.50 would give new opportunities for sell signals. As shown in the attached H4 chart, the metal has failed to break the Resistance level of 18.50 and bounced from it. Currently, the metal is trying to break the Support level of 18.30 which is tested now in order to continue its bearish move. On the otherhand, the metal’s rebound from the Support level of 18.30 cancels the bearish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.00), R2 (18.75), R1 (18.50), S1 (18.30), S2 (18.00), S3(17.75)
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 19, 2014

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Overview 

Today, 4H chart show that yesterday’s closing below the resistance level of 180.50 gives the price an opportunity for a bearish move. As shown here, currently, the price is reversing its bullish trend of yesterday trying to continue its bearish move by breaking the support level of 179.80 and closing below it. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals, and it opens the way towards 178.00, as the first target, and then the price should test the support level of 178.00 to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level, this cancels the first scenario. 

Resistance and support levels: R3 (181.00), R2 (180.50), R1(179.80), S1 (178.00), S2 (177.30), S3 (176.50).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

EUR/NZD analysis for September 19, 2014

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Overview:

Since
our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price
tested the level of 1.5781. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to
find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2%
at the price of 1.5790 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price
of 1.5700. I have also placed Fibonacci expansion levels and I got
Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5760. Anyway, If the price
breaks the level of 1.5900 (swing high like resistance), we may see
potential testing the level of 1.6000 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be
careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities.

Daily
Fibonacci pivot levels :

Resistance
levels:

R1:
1.5884

R2:
1.5900

R3:
1.5926

Support
levels:

S1:
1.5832

S2:
1.5816

S3:
1.5790

Trading
recommendations:
Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we
may see further upward movement. 

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Gold analysis for September 19, 2014

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Overview:

Since our last
analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of of
1,221.00. The price tested the level of 1.215.71. Our submajor
Fibonacci expansion 161.8% (support) at the price of 1,218.00 held
successful, so be careful when selling at this stage. According to
the 4H time frame, we can observe selling climax in the background
and very weak demand in a volume below average, which is a sign that
buying still looks risky. If the price breaks the level of 1,218.00
in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of
Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,194.00. Anyway if the
price start with upward movement, there is an Fibonacci retracement
61.8% at the price of 1,231.00.

Daily pivot
Fibonacci points:

Resistance
levels:

R1: 1,231.64

R2: 1,236.37

R3: 1,244.04

Support levels

S1: 1,219.24

S2: 1,211.57

S3: 1,206.84

Trading
recommendations:
Buying still looks risky since we cant see any
larger reaction from buyers.

 

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 19, 2014

EUR/USD: The bearish bias on this pair is still valid
and rallies have always proffered good short-selling opportunities. The current
shallow rally in the market is also seen as another opportunity to go short
when the price rallies in the context of a downtrend. As long as the price is
below the resistance line at 1.3000, there is a probability that the market may
move downwards.

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USD/CHF: This
market is in a bullish mode and the buyers have always made attempts to drive
the price higher in spite of serious challenges from bears. With more
strength in the USD, the price may reach the resistance level at 0.9450. More
challenges from the bears may cause the price to pull back towards the support
level at 0.9300.

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GBP/USD: Unlike its EUR/USD counterpart, the Cable has
succeeded in shrugging off the bears’ attacks. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56
(while the price is above both of them). The RSI period 14 is above the level
50. This means a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Short trades are no
longer logical here.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has been able to go further
northward. The bullish bias is very significant and the price may easily test
the supply level at 109.00, breaking it to the upside. However, the market
looks very overbought and as a result of this, there may be a serious pullback
along the way.

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EUR/JPY: The Euro itself is not that strong; it is the
great weakness in the Yen that has caused this pair to trend upwards
significantly. The market is now very overbought and therefore, a pullback is
imminent. While the market can go towards the supply zone at 150.00, the
possibility of a pullback may bring it down towards the demand zone at 139.50.

5.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com